Seasonal Climate Watch | April to August 2023

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely return to a neutral state by autumn (Mar-Apr-May). However, ENSO’s impact is limited for the coming seasons until the next summer season which may be impacted by an El Nino state if early predictions are correct. Caution is advised however as changes in the ENSO prediction may change during winter and only monitoring is advised at this stage.

The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for the north-east of the country and below-normal rainfall for the south-west during all predicted seasons. As most of the rainfall during winter is expected in the far south-west, the below-normal rainfall conditions in those areas are expected to have a significant impact.

Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.