Seasonal Climate Watch | Jun to Oct 2022

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely remain in this state during the coming seasons. During winter, the presence of ENSO has less of an impact. Thus, the presence of the current La Niña event is not expected to have any significant impact on rainfall in the coming seasons.

The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates below-normal rainfall for the south-western half of the country and notably above-normal rainfall over parts of Kwa-Zulu-Natal throughout the winter season. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal for most of the country.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climatic conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season.

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