Seasonal Climate Watch – May 2023

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a Neutral state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely move into a weak El Niño state during late winter and early spring and eventually strengthen into a strong El Niño state for the remainder of the summer season. Caution is advised though, ENSO predictions during this time are less skilful than at other times of the year. It is advised that the ENSO forecasts be monitored from now until we reach August/September when ENSO forecasts have significantly higher skill levels. ENSO’s impact is limited for the current forecast period until the summer season starts which will likely be impacted by a strong El Niño state if early predictions are correct. The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of the country during winter (Jun-Jul-Aug) through to early spring (Aug-Sep-Oct). This is still only relevant for the southwestern parts of the country during winter but also relevant for the eastern coastal areas during spring. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.